Applied Math Modeling - A Multidisciplinary Apprch by D Shier, K Wallenius

By D Shier, K Wallenius

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Now let us change the situation to one in which two contacts, rather than one, are required to change a susceptible to an infective. We will still assume a total of five contacts. Clearly, if N = 1 then the expected number of conversions is E = 1; there has been wastage due to overkill. Next, let us assume the number of susceptibles has grown to N = 2. Then the probability of two new infectives is given by 3 P (2 | N = 2) = j=2 5 j 1 2 5 = 20 . 32 The probability of only one new infective is 1 − P (2 | N = 2).

For example, by mid-1997, the United Kingdom had a cumulative total of 15,081 cases compared to 612,078 for the United States. 33. 37. On the other hand, at the same time, Canada had a cumulative AIDS total of 15,101. A. 37. A. A. vis-a-vis Canada. Yet, in all three countries the rate of growth of AIDS cases is nearly the same. 12 in 1995. Yet it is very nearly the same for each country in any given year. One could therefore predict the number of new cases in France in a given year, just about as well knowing the case history of the United States instead of that in France.

However, it is hardly responsible to fail to realize that, by so doing, in the case of AIDS, there is an obligation of the treated infective to take steps to ensure that he does not transmit the disease to susceptibles. To the extent that this is not the case, the highly laudable use of AZT to improve the length and quality of life for AIDS victims is probably increasing the number of deaths from AIDS. 8 10 15 20 years after administration 25 AZT effect on sustaining an AIDS epidemic AIDS as a Facilitator of Other Epidemics In 1994 Webster West [9] completed a doctoral dissertation attempting to see to what extent AIDS could enhance the spread of tuberculosis in America.

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